VG神棍日本销量预测：3天王时代落幕，启示录憾负装甲核心5！

Toyger

地址：
奇怪的链接~
原文：
Software sales increased substantially this week on the release of two fairly big, but frontloaded games - Armored Core 5 for PS3 and X360, and Resident Evil: Revelations for 3DS. Tales of Innocence: R for Vita also charted in the preliminary data, although it will do little more than provide a tiny bump this week given how low the opening for the game was. The lift should be similar to the first Resident Evil bump for 3DS in June 2011, which pushed 3DS to 27,000 from 23,000 on a 60,000 opening.

本周软件销售将在两个重量级软件：装甲核心5和生化危机：启示录的冲击下大幅上升。圣洁传说R当然也贡献了一部分的销量，但是在这次的软件大潮中还是有点不足。这个很像是生化危机佣兵在2011年6月推出时，首周卖了六万份，3DS销量也从23000推动到27000一样的效果。

1) 装甲核心 5 (PS3) - 195,000

2) 生化危机：启示录 (3DS) - 160,000

3) 圣洁传说 R (Vita) - 51,000

4) 装甲核心 5 (X360) - 35,000

5) 怪物猎人 3G (3DS) - 26,000

6) 马里奥赛车 7 (3DS) - 21,000

7) 马里奥大陆3D (3DS) - 20,000

9) 节奏怪盗R (3DS) - 10,000

9) 闪电十一人 光明/黑暗 (3DS) - 10,000

10)最终幻想 XIII-2 (PS3) - 9,000

12) 舞力全开 Wii (Wii) - 8,000

12)怪物猎人 3 (PSP) - 8,000

13) 度假村 (Wii) - 6,000

15) 星之卡比：重返梦幻岛 (Wii) - 5,000

15) 大蛇无双 2 (PS3) - 5,000

In addition to the games above, Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Wii Party (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Danball Senki (PSP), and Nintendogs + Cats (3DS) should be in the final top 20 data for the week.


除此之外， Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Wii Party (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii)，纸箱战机（PSP）和任天猫狗（3DS）也会出现在前20名里

Armored Core opened well on PS3 and X360 this week, but the series typically declines pretty quickly in week two, so whatever push X360 hardware (and possibly PS3 hardware) gets this week will be just for this week. The same goes for Vita with Tales - Tales games typically decline very quickly. The Tales of Xillia pattern was 525k-->50k-->20k in three weeks for the PS3 game. What Vita really needs is a breakout hit to sell for a long time like Monster Hunter or Wii Sports did, pushing a bit of hardware each week allowing publishers to experiment with software in a healthier hardware environment. There remains no evidence that such a hit is anywhere near arriving for Vita though.

装甲核心（PS3、X360）本周开了个好头，但在该系列游戏在第二周销量通常会下降很快，所以推动X360的硬件（可能是PS3硬件）也仅仅会是在本周。这同样适用于圣洁传说R和PSvita，传说游戏通常第二周销量会非常迅速的下降。无尽传说（PS3）就是在三个星期内从525K - > 50K - > 20K。vita真正需要的是一个能够长卖的游戏就像怪物猎人或Wii sport一样，这种可以硬件的销售处于一个比较温和的环境中。目前仍然没有证据表明vita上拥有这样一种游戏。


Resident Evil is typically fairly front loaded as well, but should plateau at a higher level than Armored Core and push hardware for say, up to two weeks instead of up to one week. Capcom and Level 5 have proven rather well now that there is a sizable (read: profitable) 3DS core audience in Japan - Monster Hunter, Inazuma Eleven, Layton, and Resident Evil all work on the platform. The question going forward is what else works - we should see a lot of experimentation with that this year by various publishers. Nintendo also claimed at its earnings briefing that 3DS will have a lot of strong software coming because 3DS sold well after the price cut, so 2012 now looks rather bright for 3DS in Japan.

但是3DS就不一样了，生化危机拥有一个很大的固定群体，它比装甲核心5的销售水平要高的多，所以它推动硬件增长至少两个星期，而不是一个星期。Capcom和L5已经证明，现在3DS在日本有一个相当大的受众群体 - 怪物猎人，闪电十一人，雷顿以及生化危机等所有游戏都可以证明这一点。现在只有一个问题，那就是还有什么作品将登陆3DS - 我们应该看到，今年厂商开始大量的登录3DS。任天堂最近发布了其盈利简报，3DS未来将有一个强大的软件阵容，因为3DS后降价出售后销量剧增，所以现在看起来3DS在日本一片光明。

Outside the new releases, the Japanese industry remained very quiet, with only 3DS seeing games released before this week still selling over 10,000 units. Hardware sales nonetheless should remain excellent compared to early 2011, as combined pre-3DS hardware was only selling around 100,000 units at this point in 2011, while total hardware should reach at least 130,000 units this week, with 160,000 or more not out of the question. 3DS certainly looks like it will clear 5m units in February, within a year of its 2011 launch, which is impressive. PSP is now trending a fair bit ahead of Vita in an aligned launch in Japan (~535,000 in 7 weeks for Vita, 5 for PSP), but once more games start arriving, the gap should close a bit.

除了新推出的游戏外，日本游戏界仍然非常安静，只有3DS在本周众多游戏的推动下依然可以保持10W份以上的游戏销量。硬件销售方面，相比于2011年初应该还是比较不错的，2011年在还没有3DS硬件的情况下，硬件只卖10万台左右，而本周总的硬件至少有13万台，甚至16万或更多也不是问题 。3DS看起来将在二月达到500万的销量，这个距离它在2011年的发售刚好一年的时间，真是令人难忘的一年。PSP是现在的趋势是在日本比vita卖的更多（535,000，vita七个星期达到，PSP五个星期），但随着更多的游戏登录PSvita，差距应该会缩小。