【VGPreview】前20任系狂揽15位，猛汉第一无压力，倚天剑深陷泥潭

Toyger

The Japan Preview: 12/11/11 Edition (Monster Hunter 3DS, Skyrim)11th
Dec Jacob Mazel, 1 hour ago, 565 views
The major releases of December continue to roll on out - this week had Monster Hunter Portable 3G for 3DS, and next week has Final Fantasy XIII-2 for PS3. This is also the last week before Vita launches in Japan which makes sense as PSP is definitely slowing down quite a bit in Japan with hardware declining and fewer and fewer titles putting up big numbers.

12月的爆发仍在进行，这周有3ds上猛汉3g，下周有PS3上有FFXIII-2，这周也是Vita亮相的前一周，因此PSP明显的减少，不仅是硬件销量的减少，游戏阵容也缺少大卖的作品。

1) Monster Hunter Portable 3G (3DS) - 419,000  

2) Mario Kart 7 (3DS) - 159,000

3) Super Mario 3DLand (3DS) - 92,000

4) The Elder Scrolls IV: Skyrim (PS3) - 76,000

5) Mobile Suit Gundam: Extreme Vs. (PS3) - 62,000

6) Usavichi: Game no Jikan (DS) - 42,000

7) Dragon Ball Z: Ultimate Blast (PS3) - 41,000

8) Toaru Kagaku no Chou Denjihou (PSP) - 37,000

9) Kirby's Return to Dreamland (Wii) - 34,000

11) Just Dance Wii (Wii) - 28,000

11) Pokepark 2 (Wii) - 28,000

13) Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Ketteiban (Wii) - 23,000

13) Metal Max 2: Reloaded (DS) - 23,000

14) Mario & Sonic at the London Olympics (Wii) - 21,000

15) One Piece: Gigant Battle 2 - Shinseka (DS) - 16,000

In addition to the games above, Skyrim (X360), The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Wii), Wii Sports Resort (Wii), Fortune Street (Wii), and Wii Party (Wii) should be in the final top 20 data for the week.

Data this week indicates somewhat poor planning for both Nintendo and Capcom. Monster Hunter Portable 3G ended up with 405,000 preorders on the eve of release, but Capcom apparently stuck to the 420,000 initial shipment it planned, with possibly a small second day shipment. Hence the game opened to figures weaker than the recent Wii and PSP mainline Monster Hunter games, but about 50% better than the recent PS3 port. Odds are with a bigger shipment Capcom could have sold at least 500,000 copies of Monster Hunter Portable 3G week one. In any case, this is normally the week hardware grows 50% just about across the board, so 3DS should be at 300,000 plus whatever hardware Monster Hunter pushed - very good numbers for Japan. Anything from 350,000 - 500,000 should be expected for the week.

Nintendo's The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword looks like it is suffering shortages of some kind, as even the most front loaded games typically sell 50% of week two in week three, but the data suggests Skyward Sword has not been replenished in the sample store or dropped below 16,000 from 32,000 last week. The first possibility is more likely. The other data for the week is fairly typical - Metal Max, Mario & Sonic, Skyrim, and Dragon Ball Z all performed about as well as games in those series have in recent years. Just Dance, Taiko, Kirby, and Pokepark are all following the traditional Wii pattern and lifting with hardware.

Data for the week ending December 18, 2011 should be fascinating in Japan, as the Vita launches December 17, and Final Fantasy XIII-2 arrives December 15. Sony still has given no guidance on Vita shipments for the March 2012 fiscal year, which to me means they don't expect it to be that relevant just yet. If they're only shipping 2-4m globally in four months in Japan and two months in the West, there might only be 250,000 Vitas or so shipped next week in Japan, although again that is a total guess as Sony hasn't indicated how many systems it can manufacture. Demand for Vita games certainly is not that high in Japan yet, although it is broadening. Uncharted Vita and Hot Shots Golf Vita have 20,000 - 25,000 preorders, Dyntasy Warriors Vita and Disgaea Vita have 10,000 preorders each. Unless hardware is much higher than 250,000 units week one, most Vita games could easily sell under 20,000 units launch week, with perhaps Uncharted & Hotshots Golf selling to one in five Vita owners each, and Dynasty Warriors & Disgaea selling to one in ten Vita owners each. That would leave 40% for Ridge Racer, Blazblue and the rest of the launch lineup, assuming around 250,000 games are sold for Vita week one. Vita doesn't launch until December 17, so look for an article with final preorder figures for Vita games mid-week.

The other big story for next week will be Final Fantasy XIII. With only three days of preordering left, Final Fantasy XIII-2 has 330,000 preorders. In contrast, Final Fantasy XIII preorders reached 1,035,000 at the aligned point before launch. There is simply no way that the gap will be bridged between the two preorder rates over the next few days. Final Fantasy XIII-2 preorders look like they will reach 340,000 - 375,000 units in Japan on the eve of launch, compared to 1.1m for Final Fantasy XIII the day before it launched. For Final Fantasy XIII, week one figures ended up being 50% higher than preorder totals at this point out from launch. If that were to happen with Final Fantasy XIII-2, the game would sell a bit less than 500,000 units week one. Most Western impressions of the game were strong at E3 and Leipzig though, so my suspicion is word of mouth will be better for Final Fantasy XIII-2 than for Final Fantasy XIII, making an opening of anywhere 450,000 - 700,000 possible week one. Nonetheless, the game does look like it will perform far worse than its predecessor in Japan, which is rather striking as it isn't a spinoff or built like FInal Fantasy XI / Final Fantasy XIV.

Toyger

除了上述排行榜的游戏，老滚5（x360），倚天剑，Wii sportR，富豪街，Wii party，预计能进入前20。

    从这周的数据我们看到了老任和老卡的紧缩计划。MH3G发售前有40.5W的预定，但卡普空显然坚持了42W的出货量计划，后几日的出货量也很小。这导致了3G的开局不如Wii和PSP上的系列正统作品。不过比起PS3上的那作，高了50%。如果能够供货充足，3G卖50W是不成问题的。不论如何，这周3ds销量增大50%也是很正常的。3ds的软件包揽了前三，而且3g还能带来30W巨大的增长，因此本周的3ds销量预计能达到35W-50W。

    倚天剑看来遇到了麻烦，即便是一些首周型游戏在第三周也能卖出第二周的一半。但是数据表明如果不是采样商店没有及时补货的话，就是销量真的低于1.6W了。不过第一项更有可能。其他的游戏都很正常。重装机兵，马里奥和索尼克，天际，龙珠都表现的与近几年的前作一样好。Just Dance，太鼓达人，卡比，口袋乐园，得益于装机量，都卖出了典型的Wii游戏的样子。

    下周的日本销量（到18日）必然霸气侧漏，因为Vita 17号发售，FF 15号发售。索尼直到现在并没有为12年3月的年度财报给出Vita的出货目标，在我看来这或许表示它们并没有那么重视Vita。如果4个月的日本销售和2个月的西方销售期（到3月）它们只供应2-4M的出货量的话，那么首周的出货量可能只有寒酸的25W。当然这是基于索尼并没有对于生产量作说明的推测。不过对于Vita游戏在日本市场的需求的确没有以前大。虽然主机机能和娱乐方面扩展了（这句不会翻）。神海和高尔夫现在有了2W-2.5W的预定量。无双和魔界战记有1W的预定。除非主机销量超过25W，不然很多首发游戏首周都卖不过2W。预计每5个vita玩家就会有一个有神海和高尔夫。魔界战记和无双则是10有1。剩下的40%则会留给山脊，苍翼和一群首发阵容。这个分析也是基于首发游戏总销量是25W的假设下的一机一游戏的假设。因为Vita在17号发售，所以周中我们还会发一篇有关预定量分析的文章。

    下周的另一个主角是FF。在还有3日就发售的情况下，FF13-2有33W的预定，与之相对FF13那时是103.5W的预定。这个差距在下面的3天是无法弥补的。13-2的预定量最后大致是34W-37.5W的样子。首周会比预定多50%的惯例对于13-2有用的话，那么销量应该略小于50W。通过E3和GC展会，大部分的西方人对于这个游戏印象深刻。因此我觉得13-2的口碑会比13好，首周能达到45W-70W的销量，尽管如此它和它的前作的销量表现会有巨大的差距，引人注意的是它并不是一个像FF11或FF14那样的续作。